Most people who bet on sports do it just like it was any other casino game. The books are more than happy with that. The fewer people who know about their inherent weakness, the more money they will make.
If you are going to win betting on sports, you have to understand the nature of the game. Knowing why you can win is the first step in doing so. But many people who have been betting for years still have not figured it out.
So why is it you can win betting on sports? It’s because the books don’t control the probabilities of the outcome of the games. It’s not like Blackjack or Craps. The house can tell you exactly how much they will make for every million dollars bet on those games. The probabilities are set by the rules and never change.
In sports betting, the books don’t have a mathematical advantage, so they charge a vig to play. To further compensate for the lack of control over the game, they also use point spreads to encourage betting one way or the other.
Knowledge of the historical performance of those spread numbers is where you can find your edges. Since you don’t have to cover every game like the book does, you can place bets only on games where the point spread has shown a 53% or better win rate for the last several years.
Doing that will gain you the same kind of advantage the casino retains over its players, only you will be using it against them. Sports betting is unique in being the only gambling endeavor that allows the player to do that. And all it takes is a little bit of knowledge properly applied.
