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There are ten remaining unbeaten College Football teams as we enter the fourth Saturday of October. Typically, by the end of the season, there will never be more than three unbeaten teams and that includes teams from non-BCS conferences such as Boise State and TCU. Therefore, with only one month left in the regular season, the time is now to start playing against these undefeated squads, particularly if they are favorites on the betting line as even if they do win, they may not prevail by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for.

Two undefeated teams are guaranteed to lose this Saturday as 7-0 Auburn plays 7-0 LSU and BCS #1 Oklahoma travels to Missouri in a battle of 6-0 squads. Stay away from these games as they don’t really fit our parameters.

That leaves six teams that we should look to play against: Oregon (plays Thursday), Boise State, TCU, Michigan State, Utah and Oklahoma State. We’ll make it a point to scratch Okie State off our list as well as the Cowboys will be 5.5-point underdogs, at home, to a Nebraska team off its first loss of the season.

That brings our list down to five. Considering their non-BCS stature and subsequent lack of respect from the pollsters, Boise State and TCU are more likely to “run up the score” and cover a large spread then their fellow unbeaten brethren. Already this season we’ve seen Boise State cover three spreads of 38 points or greater! TCU is just 3-4 ATS, but that’s because they have been a double-digit favorite in every game.

So we are down to three possible unbeaten teams to play against. Oregon and Utah are both large home favorites against inferior competition that is unlikely to win the game straight up. So that leaves us with Michigan State, who will be a small road favorite at a rested Northwestern team (off last Saturday). Take note that the host Wildcats are 18-7 ATS as underdogs for coach Pat Fitzgerald and that includes a perfect 6-0 ATS record when getting between 3.5 and 10 points.

Therefore, our free College Football pick this week is to take the Northwestern Wildcats (+5.5) over the Michigan State Spartans.

NY Jets (-3) at Denver (40.5)
There are several key betting situations to avoid when making free NFL Football pick. One of them, for us at least, is road favorites. Now this doesn’t mean that all NFL road favorites will fail to cover the pointspread; because some will, however, they tend to be “sucker bets.” What we mean by that is these usually lower priced favorites, typically matched up against a lesser opponent, are attractive to the general betting public while at the same time being consistently unsuccessful. Your “square” bettors see a team, say for example the Chargers, laying only a few points against the Raiders and the knee-jerk reaction is to take the better team. Yet, consider what happened last week with NFL road favorites.

First we had the Packers laying three points at Washington. Things got off to a decent enough start with Green Bay jumping out to a 13-0 lead. However, they would not end well as the Redskins came back to force OT and took the game 16-13.

Up next was Atlanta, also laying three points, playing at Cleveland. While the Falcons were fortunate enough to be the lone road favorite to cover in Week 5 action, the ATS win was quite fortuitous. Up 13-10 late in the game and looking like a push was inevitable, a defensive lineman made an incredible interception and returned it for a touchdown gving the Falcons the cover.

Then, you have the case of New Orleans laying nearly a touchdown at Arizona, who was starting an undrafted rookie at quarterback. The Saints outgained the Cards 358-194 as expected, but turned the ball over four times and allowed two defensive TD’s in a 30-20 loss.

Then you had the case of the aforementioned Chargers, who did lose outright to the Raiders despite a +230 edge in total yards.

It’s tempting, but we recommend to avoid NFL road favorites at all costs. Early in the season, it’s okay because you can get out in front of the oddsmakers and find unexpected value. Now, it’s too late. Consider that road chalk has not had a single winning week this season and is seven games under.500 overall!

Therefore, our free NFL Football pick for Week 6 is to play the Denver Broncos +3 against the New York Jets.

Alabama (-7.5) at Arkansas (54.5)This is the most anticipated College Football game of the weekend with the number one team in the country hitting the road for the second straight week to take on the 10th ranked Arkansas Razorbacks. Something has to give in Fayetteville Saturday afternoon as ‘Bama has won 18 straight SEC openers, but the visitor in this series has gone just 1-5 straight up. The oddsmakers currently have the Tide favored by slightly more than a touchdown for this matchup.

Last year in Tuscaloosa, Alabama won and covered easily, downing the Hogs 35-7 as large 17-point favorites. Tide QB McElroy threw for a season high 291 yards and three touchdowns. A closer look inside the numbers reveals that Bama led by just a touchdown margin in the 3rd quarter before McElroy threw a 50 yd and an 80 yd TD pass on a pair of one-play drives to break the game wide open.

Arkansas has lost three straight to Alabama, but this is likely the strongest Razorbacks outfit since the 10-4 2006 team that did beat the Tide here in Fayetteville 24-23 (-2) in double overtime.

Alabama has covered all three of its games so far this season with ease. They have outscored opponents 134-19 and following last week’s 62-13 demolishing of Duke are now 8-1 ATS their last nine true road games.

The Razorbacks are also 3-0 SU, but just 1-1 ATS. They opened with a non-lined win over Tennessee Tech and last week needed a last minute touchdown pass from QB Ryan Mallett to win at Georgia. They are now 9-6 ATS as a dog in the Bobby Petrino era.

With so much conflicting information on the side in this game, we are going to make a play on the total. The public certainly is envisioning a high-scoring matchup, betting the over/under line up a full five points from the opening number. What they must not know is that Bama is 11-1 Under if they scored 42 or more points in their previous game.

Therefore our free College Football pick of the week is to play the Under in Alabama at Arkansas.