There is no doubt that you have to pay attention to the workouts listed for a runner when you’re handicapping a race. Betting on a horse race and not noting which horses have been working well up to the race is financial suicide. Those workout figures are like a scouting report for a major league sport. Teams send scouts to watch other teams and other players practice in order to know what they will be up against and those workout figures let you know how fit and ready a horse is, but like a lot of numbers, you have to know how to interpret them.
Let’s take a moment and think about how those works can be deciphered in order to find a horse that has the ability to win. First of course, there is the actual time the horse ran. The rule of thumb that is usually used is 12 seconds per furlong. A three furlong work in 36 flat is considered pretty good. The longer the work, the more important the time becomes. If a horse works a full six furlongs in 1:12 (still 12 seconds per furlong) that is a good work.
Once you’ve looked at the time, one of the next things to consider is how the horse was urged on or in other words, whether it was breezing or handily. This tells you just how hard the rider pushed the runner. Sometimes you’ll get lucky and a clocker will also add a note about a horse. This is very important because it means the clocker saw something important, perhaps a horse who has made a remarkable improvement since its last work.
Along with the time, distance, and effort, you must also consider the horse’s age. A fully matured horse, say a five year old, should be able to run faster than a two year old. Therefore, if a two year old and a five year old both post the same time on the same day, the two year old’s time is more impressive, generally speaking. We must include the caveat that this also depends upon the condition of the older horse. Some clocker services make note of special horses based on their age and most recent works and call them special.
Recency is another very important consideration when determining the value of works. A horse that worked fast in the last week is a horse that appears ready to race. Of course, times are relative to the track condition and one of the best ways to determine if a horse’s workout was a fast one is to compare it to other horses who worked that day. That is the purpose of the fraction at the end of each workout. A 1/43 would mean that particular workout was the fastest one of the day and that 43 horses worked out. That would also be very impressive.
When evaluating maidens, workout times are especially critical. For first time starters, look for a string of workouts that are regularly space apart, say a workout every six or seven days. Naturally, a fast work just before their first race is a good sign, depending upon the trainer’s habits. I like to see a bullet work somewhere in a young horses efforts. A bullet, of course, denotes the fastest workout at the distance for that day.
